Financial and operational decisions in the electricity sector: Contract portfolio optimization with the conditional value-at-risk criterion

The restructuring of electricity markets around the world have caused increased volatility and uncertainty of the price power. As a result, providers of power now face increased uncertainty and risk in the operational and financial decisions related to procurement. Providers must seek optimal ways to deliver the required volume of power to retailers and end users while managing risk. We consider a mixed-integer programming model for a power providing agent that jointly considers the problem of selecting custom electricity contracts and finding the optimal procurement strategy of meeting contract obligations under spot price uncertainty. A two-stage stochastic integer programming (SIP) model with a conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) constraint to incorporate risk aversion is developed. Computational results are presented that demonstrates the CVaR approach and the results are compared with a corresponding expected cost minimization approach. The SIP model with CVaR will allow acceptance of contracts at lower prices compared to an approach based on a corresponding risk-neutral model as a hedge against uncertainty and mis-specified arbitrage.     

Incentives,wages, and promotions: theory and evidence

I study an incentive problem that has been largely ignored in the agency literature: incentives for repeated (human capital) investment. The optimal contract is very simple but still provides rich implications for incentive and wage structures in large organizations. The empirical evidence is presented using personnel records of health insurance claim processors in a large U.S. insurance company. These processors are white‐collar, nonmanagerial, female, service industry workers—a rapidly growing but rarely studied labor group. The empirical findings are consistent with the main features of the optimal contract.     

Off-farm labor supply responses to permanent and transitory farm income

A sample of Iowa farm couples is used to evaluate whether off‐farm labor supply decisions respond to permanent and transitory components of farm income. Off‐farm labor supply of both spouses declines in response to increases in permanent farm income. Farm wives also reduce off‐farm labor supply in response to positive transitory farm income shocks. Consequently, one mechanism farm households use to smooth their goods consumption when facing fluctuating farm income is to modify their consumption of leisure. Ability to smooth goods consumption does not imply the absence of liquidity constraints among farm households unless leisure consumption is also smoothed.     

Oil shocks,US economic uncertainty,and emerging stock markets

This paper investigates the impacts of oil price shocks and US economic uncertainty on emerging equity markets within a structural VAR model. I find that both precautionary oil demand and US economic uncertainty shocks have significant negative effects on emerging stock returns, whereas aggregate demand shocks cause a sustained rise of the returns. In particular, the direct effects of oil shocks on emerging stock returns are amplified by the endogenous response of US economic uncertainty. Variance decomposition analysis shows that oil market fundamentals and US economic uncertainty are an important determinant of emerging equity returns, accounting for 35% and 24% of their long-term variations, respectively. The heterogeneous impacts of structural shocks on individual emerging markets, however, suggest that a well-diversified portfolio can be obtainable.     

Damage Estimation and Its Accuracy Antitrust Policy Implication *

This paper empirically estimates antitrust damage based on the rich information on cost factors in the bid-rigged Texas school milk market. Empirical results demonstrate that damage estimate by antitrust agency is a significantly underestimated amount of the true damage. This understatement of true harm inevitably includes implementation biases in the antitrust system. [K21, L13, L40]     

Asymmetry in the Response of Price-Cost Margins to the Level of Demand Across Booms and Slumps: the Case of U.S. Industries* I thank Editor of this journal and an anonymous referee for their helpful suggestions and

Haltiwanger and Harrington (1991) reveal that, while the gain from deviating

from a collusive agreement in an oligopolistic industry is greatest during booms, it

is most difficult to collude during recessions since forgone profits inflicted on

defection are relatively low in recessions. Their numerical simulations show that

firms price more countercyclically during recessions than during booms to deter

relatively greater incentive to defect in recession. This paper tests for a potential

asymmetry in the response of margins to the level of demand across booms and

slumps, using panel data covering 180 U.S. four-digit level SIC manufacturing

industries over the 1963-1987 period. The principal findings accept this theoretical

prediction. [L1, L6]     

Business Crisis and Management Fashion: Korean Companies,Restructuring and Consulting Advice

The concept of management fashion has become increasingly common in studies of management knowledge diffusion, although rarely applied outside of Western economic settings. In this article we examine the activities of one group of management fashion setters, global management consultancies, and their role in the restructuring of Korean industry following the 1997 economic crisis. We find that large Korean companies made significant use of Western consultancies in the aftermath of the 1997 crisis. However, while the engagement of Western management experts provided an impression of reform, the adoption of consultant-directed change has been variable and consultants faced considerable client resistance to the adoption of new practice. The article explores the reasons underlying the limited embrace of Western consulting expertise in Korea and highlights the implications of the Korean case for management fashion theory.     

Royalties vs. upfront lump-sum fees in data communication environments

Mobile communications markets worldwide, today, are saturated, the number of mobile network operators (MNOs) in market is declining, mobile revenues are stagnant or falling, MNOs are becoming wireless Internet service providers, and economies of scope are strengthening. This paper challenges existing dominant views on spectrum assignment and license fee payments, estimates spectrum fees that MNOs would have paid under royalties and then compares them with upfront lump-sum fees actually paid by 3G licensees. This paper further proposes that governments need to consider assigning additional spectrum to incumbents as needs arise without using auctions and adopting royalties as a way of collecting spectrum fees should they collect them.     

The efficacy of red flags in predicting the SEC's targets: an artificial neural networks approach

This paper illustrates the application of artificial neural networks (ANNs) to test the ability of selected SAS No. 53 red flags to predict the targets of the SEC investigations. Investors and auditors desire to predict SEC targets because substantial losses in equity value are associated with SEC investigations. The ANN models classify the membership in target (investigated) versus control (non-investigated) firms with an average accuracy of 81%. One reason for the relative success of the ANN models is that ANNs have the ability to ‘learn’ what is important. The participants in financial reporting frauds have incentives to appear prosperous as evidenced by high profitability. In contrast to conventional statistical models with static assumptions, the ANNs use adaptive learning processes to determine what is important in predicting targets. Thus, the ANN approach is less likely to be affected by accounting manipulations. Our ANN models are biased against achieving predictive success because we use only publicly available information. The results confirm the value of red flags, i.e. financial ratios available from trial balance in conjunction with non-financial red flags such as the turnover of CEO, CFO and auditors do have predictive value. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.